Jin Shiyuan (603369) 2019 performance preview comment: 19 perfect ending 20 start
The growth rate range is in line with expectations.
The announced profit growth range is 20% -30%, which is in line with market expectations; the rapid growth of long-term profits is mainly due to the rapid volume of special A + (national 深圳桑拿网 borders, four-way and above) products (annual income growth of 40%);The company’s budget rate is relatively stable. According to projections, the profit growth rate in 2020 is expected to be above 25%.
It has successfully concluded in 19 years, and the beginning of 2020 is expected to be achieved smoothly.
Channel feedback, as of the end of 2019, major regions have completed scheduled sales tasks, of which the Nanjing area has completed the task in November; grassroots findings show that channel inventory has decreased quarter by quarter after the Mid-Autumn Festival in 19, and eventually some terminals are in short supply.Status, the stocking of dealers and terminals is expected to be sufficient, and the existing channels have entered the stocking period. It is optimistic to estimate the sales situation in the first quarter of 2020.
Starting in 2020, this world fate takes advantage of the situation and strongly recommends it.
We believe that the company’s growth is supported by solid support: 1) Consumption upgrades drive the rapid expansion of sub-high-end and provide market space for national borders: Jiangsu’s price range above 300 yuan continued to expand, following the mainstream price levels in Nanjing and southern JiangsuAfter the move, northern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu followed closely behind, and the consumption potential was gradually released to provide market space for the national border series; 2) Consumption in the province has gradually started, channels are benign, and the high growth rate of the national border series can continue: nowGuoyuan has completed consumer cultivation in Nanjing, and the country has entered a period of accelerated heavy volume. The Nanjing region is expected to maintain a high growth rate. With the gradual spread of consumption, the southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu regions promote accelerated growth. At present, the Guoyuan series is stillFocusing on natural sales, benign channel inventory, stable price orders, full dealer payment expectations, and even better channel support for national border series; 3), extra-provincial markets and national border V series will contribute more incremental:The company has completed channel development and product introduction, and has entered a gradual development period. Shandong, Shanghai and other markets have a high degree of product acceptance and will continue to contribute additional increments to the company.It is still small but has a high growth rate, and the company’s product structure also has more room for further improvement; 4) Su-Jiu competition, Yanghe has limited repression on this world in the short term: due to destocking, price stabilization and other factors, Yanghe needs some time,In the long run, there will be no difference between Yanghe and Jinshiyuan in terms of products and channels. The leader of Su Jiu will be in a competitive development and share consumption upgrade.
Earnings forecast and investment advice: We will temporarily maintain the previous earnings forecast. It is expected that the EPS for 2019-2021 will be 1.
81 yuan, corresponding to PE is 30/23/19 times, maintaining the level of “prudent increase”.
Risk Warning: Macroeconomic risks, food safety, and out-of-province expansion are less than expected.