Public Education (002607): Leading Non-Certificate Vocational Education Enters Golden Growth Period
The vocational education leader has been further established, and the momentum of high growth is unabated.
Zhonggong Education succeeded in backdooring Yaxia Automobile in 2018, and is the only educational company that succeeded in backdooring. It is also the education company with the largest profit volume and the most pure business.
The company started with civil servant exam training. At present, the business is divided into four major sections: civil servant exams, teacher qualifications and recruitment, comprehensive face-to-face training (postgraduate entrance examination, IT, etc.), and public institution recruitment.
The company is supplemented by offline as the main line, and offline training is provided as a continuous training mode.
The company realized revenue in 201862.
37 ppm, an increase of 54 in ten years.
7%; net profit attributable to mother 11.
530,000 yuan, an increase of 119 in ten years.
7%, higher than performance commitment 9.
300 million, 121% completion rate.
2019H1 continued to maintain a strong performance and achieved revenue of 36.
37 ppm, an increase of 48 in ten years.
Among them, 2Q2019 achieved revenue of 23.
US $ 300 million, an increase of 42% per year.
930,000 yuan, an increase of 132 in ten years.
The nationally covered strong channel + high unit price and long-term agreement agreement classes are the two main characteristics of the company’s operations.
1) The company’s main business model is sub-line education. A strong capillary network can improve the company’s sales ability and reflect scale effects in multi-disciplinary replication and promotion.
As of 2019, H1 has covered 319 prefecture-level cities, with a total of 880 outlets, a net increase of 179 in the first half of the year, and is the largest educational and training institution in China.
2) The company’s main difference from itself is a large number of agreement classes, that is, the sales model of high customer unit prices but no refunds.
These two companies can obtain higher customer unit prices and advance receipts than first-class, cash flow and turnover have increased significantly, but the terms of the refund also meet the mindset of more candidates.
Participation rate, market share, and customer unit price are the core driving factors for the growth of the civil service examination training business.
The civil servants’ national examinations and provincial examinations all showed a decrease in the number of recruiters.
However, due to the severe number of unemployed, the number of applicants has not increased for the time being, and the participation rate is still increasing, and the intensity of competition has continued to increase.
At present, the company has exceeded the expansion of Huatu Education in terms of outlets and sales, and has continuously obtained incremental expansion in the duopoly market.
2019 H1 civil servant business achieved revenue 18.
2 ‰, an increase of 26% in ten years, the infiltration of enrollment and price increases must increase the civil service examination training business against the trend.
Postgraduate entrance examinations, teacher qualifications, and recruitment training have high industry ceilings and rapid growth, which are new highlights.
In the new business, postgraduate entrance examinations and teacher qualifications are the backbone of growth, and the industry ceiling continues to rise.
In 2019, the number of applicants for postgraduate entrance examinations reached 2.9 million, an increase of 21 each year.
8%, a record growth rate of nearly five years.
Teacher qualification exams benefit from the close supervision of off-campus training institutions in the second half of 2018, which requires teachers in training institutions to hold a certificate to work, which will force the rapid increase in registration numbers and participation rates.
2019H1 teacher recruitment and teacher qualification, comprehensive (including postgraduate entrance examination + IT) to achieve revenue4.
0 billion US dollars, an increase of 52% / 89% in ten years, is the company’s mass products in the growth rate inverter products.
Adjust earnings forecast and maintain BUY rating.
Recently announced that the number of national civil service examination recruitment in 2020 will pick up to 2.40,000, an increase of 66% every year, and the 2019 H2 provincial test also has a corresponding recovery.
Adjust the profit forecast, the company is expected to have 苏州夜网论坛 a net profit of 16 in 2019-2021.
32 billion, 23.
2.4 billion, 29.
3.4 billion (formerly 16.
6.4 billion, 22.
75 billion, 26.
3 billion), the corresponding EPS is 0.
48 yuan (previously 0.
43 yuan), corresponding to PE is 68 times, 46 times, 37 times.
Maintain BUY rating.
Risk reminder: The number of civil servant examinations and public institution enrollment registrations is greatly deviated.